Sapulpa, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

814
FXUS64 KTSA 151849
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
149 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

  - Showers and thunderstorms chances expected for southeast OK /
    northwest AR through the early evening.

  - An unsettled weather pattern continues through the weekend and
    into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are expected at
    times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A shortwave trough axis is traversing the area today, with an
associated surface front currently oriented SW-NE across southeast
OK and into central AR. Showers and thunderstorms are forming along
and just behind this front. A few storms have become marginally
severe with hail up to 1". In general, this will continue for a
couple of hours before diminishing. Temperatures will climb a few
more degrees this afternoon for areas that have seen extensive
clouds. Overnight tonight, lows will fall into the upper 50s to low
60s in the north, and mid to upper 60s in the south. The somewhat
drier air, especially in northeast OK, will allow for more efficient
radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Low level winds will reverse to southerly Saturday morning with
moisture quickly moving northwards again. However, another boundary
will quickly begin sweeping it back to the east by mid morning. A
few storms may develop along or ahead of this boundary in northwest
AR. Any storms that do form may become severe with plenty of
instability, moisture, and shear present. However, CAMs have not
been too excited for our area given robust mid level capping and
the fact that the initiating feature isn`t all that strong. This
should keep the best severe probabilities east, but confidence
isn`t particularly high either, and it wouldn`t be surprising if
storms did form a bit further west. CAMs then show another round
of storms along the boundary in the late afternoon or evening, but
these will probably be either right on the edge of the area or
south/east. It`ll be another warm day, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.

One more boundary moves through Saturday morning, after which deep
moisture will spread over the entire area. There is no point in
getting too specific on details later Saturday through Tuesday as
confidence is low on when exact features will move through, and
details will be dependent on what happens the day before. With
that said, the general pattern will be one of good ascent due to a
favorable jet and incoming upper level low. We will have
sustained low level warm and moist advection. Therefore, several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely. Given the time of
year and general favorable thermodynamics, severe thunderstorms
are expected at times, with potentially all hazards. Stay tuned,
as things may get pretty busy.

By Tuesday the main storm system will eject across the area,
with cooler and drier air moving in behind it. High temperatures
will drop and humidity will diminish for a few days. Low
temperatures may even return to the 40s for the cool spots by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Scattered showers and storms will continue to spread northeast
across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas into early
evening as a weakening frontal boundary moves southeastward over
the region. By mid evening, the greater precip potential looks to
be mainly east of the TAF sites. Additional shower/storm
convection returns Friday morning ahead of another frontal
boundary moving into the CWA. Have added a Prob30 group for far
northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Cloud cover is forecast to be
scattered to broken high clouds through much of the TAF period,
with a period of mid clouds into this evening and also potential
MVFR ceilings Friday morning. Southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas would have the greater potential for MVFR Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  88  57  84 /   0  10   0  20
FSM   67  89  62  88 /  20  30  10  20
MLC   64  87  61  88 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   54  86  52  81 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   61  84  57  85 /  10  30   0  20
BYV   61  84  58  84 /  20  30   0  20
MKO   60  86  58  85 /   0  20   0  20
MIO   58  84  54  81 /   0  20   0  10
F10   60  87  59  86 /   0  10   0  20
HHW   69  88  64  87 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20